Last Year's Record: 2-14 (4th in Division)Last Year's Story: Heading into QB-of-the-future Matthew Stafford's inaugural season, the focus was toward building for the future. With a promising young core of WR Calvin Johnson (23), RB Kevin Smith (22), TE Brandon Pettigrew (24) and Stafford (21) the Lions looked poised to grow consistency together and surprise as a potential sleeper team. The only thing consistent was their inconsistency. Stafford looked like a rookie at times and a sure-fire franchise QB at others. Johnson fought through double coverages without a reliable second option. The offense even showed flashes of greatness at times, gritting it out in a last second comeback win at home against Cleveland on week 11. Okay greatness is pushing it, the Browns are awful. As the season wore on, the quad of youngsters were also hit by an injury train. Combined they missed 16 games between each other and were only on the field together for 8 regular season games.
As for the other side of the ball, the numbers tell most of the story. The Lions' defense ranked last in Total Yards, Yds/game, Pass Yds/game and Pts/game. Their Rush Yds/game was only slightly improved at 25th. The early loss of veteran Jared Devries to the defensive line threw rookie Sammie Hill into the fire. The line was porous at best, succumbing to individual rushers gaining over 100 yards 8 different times. The secondary was mired in injury with 6 DBs finishing the season on the injured reserve. The lone bright spot was the LB corps which received fast-paced high intensity play from Julian Peterson, Ernie Sims, Larry Foote and youngster DeAndre Levy.
Key Additions: DE Kyle Vanden Bosch (Titans), DT Ndamukong Suh (2nd Overall Pick), RB Jahvid Best (30th Overall Pick), WR Nate Burleson (Seahawks), TE Tony Scheffler (Broncos), OG Rob Sims (Seahawks)
Key Subtractions: LB Ernie Sims (Eagles), LB Larry Foote (Steelers)
Injuries: SS Ko Simpson - Missed most of training camp with a knee injury after missing most of last year. He is the starting SS. Worth keeping an eye on.
Predicted Finish: 3-13The defense improved on paper. They shored up the defensive line with the drafting of Suh and signing Vanden Bosch to a four-year deal worth $26 million. Both players should make an immediate impact. The losses of Foote and Sims will hurt. Newcomer Zach Follett will replace Sims having played in 10 games and amassing a total of... 10 total tackles. The front office brass apparently had enough faith in him to let Sims go. Foote will be replaced at MLB by Deandre Levy who proved to be a capable starter and ended up playing in all but one of the team's games. Whether he can perform consistently at that level without Sims or Foote to help back him up remains an unknown. The secondary shouldn't face the smattering of injuries they had last year, but then again they aren't that talented to begin with. I expect improvement from this defensive unit. The only way to go is up anyway.
The offense should face similar returns from their off-season investments. Best could be a sleeper for Offensive ROY. He'll split time with a (hopefully) healthy Kevin Smith. This tandem should demand respect and free up space for Megatron. CJ will also benefit from the veteran presence of Nate Burleson, a possession receiver that runs good routes. A legitimate second option for Stafford. In addition, with Pettigrew healthy, the Lions have two starting-caliber tight ends. Neither of them have proved themselves to stand out yet, but both should be serviceable. The acquisition of Rob Sims will prove to be valuable. Longtime veteran Jeff Backus is a rock at LT. The offensive line should benefit from an additional year together and some veteran depth.
I admit, they have improved themselves on paper. They are young and FAST. It will be exciting to watch them this year, especially if Stafford can limit his turnovers. So why give the Lions only one extra win from last year? Well that little thing called a schedule. The Lions face the enormous task of playing the NFC East and AFC East. Quite possibly the two strongest divisions in football. And if not, well then they're playing in the toughest division. The only sanctuary is a home game against the Rams and an away game in Tampa. The Lions' record may not improve much, but their play will. The future looks a little brighter in Motown.
Offensive MVP: Calvin Johnson
Defensive MVP: Ndamukong Suh
Fantasy Boom: Calvin Johnson - Megatron is an elite WR poised for a big year. Expect more consistency between him and Stafford.
Projected Stats: 88 rec 1300 yds 9 TD
Fantasy Bust: Tony Scheffler - He'll be splitting reps with Pettigrew. The Lions have too many weapons in the red zone.
Projected Stats: 35 rec 475 yds 3 TD
Fantasy Sleeper: Jahvid Best - He's a homerun threat with a decent offensive line. If he can be anywhere near as dominant as he was in college, the Lions may have stumbled upon California gold.
Projected Stats: 200 car 770 yds 5 TD, 30 rec 280 yds 3 TD
Last Year's Record: 7-9 (3rd in Division)Last Year's Story: Never shy in the off-season, Chicago blew a load of draft picks to rescue Pro Bowl QB Jay Cutler from the evil clutches of Denver coach Josh McDaniels. With their franchise QB firmly entrenched and RB Matt Forte coming off of a breakout rookie season, the Bears looked to be in the driver's seat, having come one game away from making the playoffs in '08. In the opening day game against Green Bay, Cutler proved to be erratic, throwing 4 interceptions as the defense blew a 4th quarter lead to complete the meltdown. This would set the tone for the season. After throwing for 4500 yds 25 TD 18 INT at 62.3 PCT in '08 Cutler regressed to 3600 yds 27 TD 26 INT at 60 PCT. The blame should not be heaped on Cutler though. With return-man specialist Devin Hester as the #1 WR, Forte unable to hold onto the ball and a past-their-prime O-Line led by Orlando Pace and Olin Kreutz, the Bears stumbled in '09.
Chicago's defense was consistently mediocre throughout the year, unable to stop any high-powered offense from having their way. Part of this reason is that defensive centerpiece, LB Brian Urlacher went down to injury in the first game of the season and never returned. Having produced more than 34 turnovers in each of Lovie Smith's first five seasons, the bounces simply did not go their way in '09 with only 28 turnovers and 35 sacks. Although they ranked 10th in turnovers forced, they were a -6 overall.
Key Additions: DE Julius Peppers (Panthers), RB Chester Taylor (Vikings), Mike Martz (Offensive Coordinator), FS Major Wright (75th pick)
Key Subtractions: DE Alex Brown (Saints), DE Adewale Ogunleye (FA)
Injuries: None
Predicted Finish: 7-9Color me skeptical, but I'm not convinced Julius Peppers is the pole to vault this team into the playoffs. Firstly, the team lost Brown (6 sacks) and Ogunleye (6.5 sacks). I doubt Peppers will be much more productive than both of them combined. He is heading into his 9th season and has only topped 12.5 sacks 3 times. The linebackers should be much improved with Urlacher and Pisa Tinoisamoa healthy. Urlacher is heading into his 11th season. I wonder how much longer he can be a dominant force in this league, especially since he must come back from a season-ending injury. The cornerbacks are solidified with Zach Bowman and Charles Tillman, but the safety slots are up for grabs. In competition are incumbents Danieal Manning and Chris Harris as well as Craig Steltz and rookie Major Wright. The group as a whole should be slightly improved, barring injuries.
The offense is a different story and one that is not as easy to predict. Jay "Crybaby" Cutler will benefit from Mike Martz and his ability to mold Hall of Fame QBs (see: Kurt Warner), but who exactly will he throw to? TE Greg Olsen is his most legitimate threat but WRs Devin Hester and Johnny Knox are not #1 options on most teams. Secondaries blanketed them last year forcing a ton of missed balls and broken routes. Forte's return to dominance could be possible with the addition of Taylor, but they will be too dependent on a makeshift offensive line to predict absolute success. The Bears got rid of a washed-up Pace, but will use training camp to determine the best possible combination of lineman to use come September.
Offensive MVP: Jay Cutler
Defensive MVP: Julius Peppers
Fantasy Boom: Greg Olsen - Cutler will improve under Martz's direction and Olsen is his guy.
Projected Stats: 70 rec 720 yds 9 TD
Fantasy Bust: Matt Forte - He will be forced to split time with Chester Taylor behind a huge question mark of an offensive line.
Projected Stats: 240 car 900 yds 6 TD
Fantasy Sleeper: Johnny Knox - Despite a raw rookie season, Knox has shown flashes of brilliance and could surprise this year.
Projected Stats: 60 rec 680 yds 5 TD
Last Year's Record: 12-4 (1st in Division) 1-1 PlayoffsLast Year's Story: A friend challenged me to write this blurb without mentioning He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named. Unfortunately I don't think that's possible. The Unretired One even put Adrian Peterson on the media back stove and dominated the headlines. As Favre went, so did the Vikings. None of this was more evident than a week 3 miracle catch in the back of the end zone by Greg Lewis against the 49ers. Conversely, the season ended not so miraculously with an overtime interception in the NFC Championship game. (Sidenote: Favre has now thrown interceptions in his last career passing attempts for the Packers, Jets and Vikings -- as long as he stays retired... please stay retired). Among the supporting cast, Adrian Peterson wasn't as dominant as his previous version, racking up over 100 yards in only 3 games. Percy Harvin proved to be a breakout star, winning Offensive ROY. Visante Shiancoe emerged as a dangerous red zone option and Pro Bowl guard Steve Hutchinson anchored a solid line.
The Vikings' D was spectacular against the run, but less than impressive against the air attack. The best defensive line in the league featured a Pro Bowl caliber player at every position. Pat and Kevin Williams anchored the middle and were flanked at the ends by Jared Allen (arguably the best DE in the league) and Ray Edwards (8.5 sacks). The unit topped the league with 48 sacks. LB Chad Greenway had a great year, but lost the freedom to move around when MLB E.J. Henderson went down with a broken femur in December. CB Antoine Winfield was not able to stay healthy either. The secondary persevered and only gave up 2 individual 300 yard passing games, including the playoffs. Still, they were not able to force many turnovers, with only 11 total interceptions on the year as a team, tied for 26th in the league.
Key Additions: CB Lito Sheppard (Jets), CB Chris Cook (34th Pick), RB Toby Gerhart (51st pick), DE Everson Griffen (100th pick)
Key Subtractions: RB Chester Taylor (Bears)
Injuries: None
Predicted Finish: 11-5 (Favre) 8-8 (sans)If Minnesota is jilted by Favre, this season could turn ugly quickly. Backup QB Tavaris Jackson played reasonably well in short stints last year, but hasn't played consistently since '07. QB is too important a position to leave up to an unknown. If Favre does return, I don't see him having the MVP-caliber season he had last year (4200 yards 33 TD 7 INT at 68.4% 107 QB Rating). He'll be 41 in October and is coming off major ankle surgery. AP will be AP. Percy Harvin and Vishanthe Shiancoe will both take another step forward. Shiancoe spent four years in New York with Coughlin, but was unable to break out until '08.
The defense added depth where they were weakest: the secondary. The signing of veteran Lito Sheppard was a great move. Sheppard was a Pro Bowler in his time with the Eagles. While he may have lost a step since those days, he will still be a valuable backup to rotate into their nickel schemes. If the linebackers can stay healthy, the Vikings' front seven could be the best in the league. This defense is dangerous. The balls didn't seem to bounce their way last year only recovering 13 of their 23 forced fumbles. The poor luck should regress back to the mean.
I seem to have the Vikings improving in almost all aspects, yet gave them a worse record than last year. This is because they got worse at the most important position, quarterback. Tavaris Jackson cannot be Brett Favre. Neither can Favre for that matter (or at least the '09 version of him). It's one thing to come back from major ankle surgery at 25 (and still extremely difficult). It's a completely different thing to do it at 40-41. Poor quarterback play can destroy a team. We saw how the team rose and fell with Favre's performances last year. This year will be no different. Only Favre will be worse.
Offensive MVP: Adrian Peterson
Defensive MVP: Ray Edwards
Fantasy Boom: Adrian Peterson - No brainer here. He has a great line to support him and doesn't need to rely on the QB to get his touches. He should get even more carries this year.
Projected Stats: 330 car 1400 yds 17 TD, 30 rec 350 yds 4 TD
Fantasy Bust: Brett Favre/Tavaris Jackson - Yes, they have weapons at their disposal and a solid line, but the same was true last year as well. Neither of them will have last year's season.
Projected Stats: Favre: 3900 yds 28 TD 23 INT, Jackson: 3000 yds 22 TD 23 INT
Fantasy Sleeper: Vikings D - not really a sleeper, but when you consider the number of huge games they could have it will spike your week-to-week total. They are still the best in the sack business and will get more interceptions than last year if they remain healthy.
Last Year's Record: 11-5 (2nd in Division) 0-1 PlayoffsLast Year's Story: In QB Aaron Rodgers' second full year as a starter, the offense thrived. Rodgers threw for over 4000 yards for the second consecutive season, becoming the first person in NFL history to do so. He is not without a plethora of weapons. Bonafide star WRs Greg Jennings and Donald Driver lead an impressive receiving corps. RB Ryan Grant has rushed for over 1200 yards in the past two years. The Packers left some points on the board last year, but it wasn't the fault of the skill position players. The offensive line suffered miserably against the pass rush, giving up a league high 51 sacks. While constantly running for his life, Rodgers completed 64.7% of his passes and boasted 30 TD to only 7 INT -- good for a QB rating of 103.2. Despite putting up the 6th best yards/game and 3rd most points/game over the course of the regular season, the Packers were handed a Wild Card round exit courtesy of the Arizona Cardinals. Rodgers threw for over 400 yards and had 4 TDs, but a fumble recovery returned by Karlos Dansby in overtime sealed their fate 51-45.
The defense put up impressive numbers in some gaudy categories. They led the league with 30 interceptions and a turnover differential of +24. At 33, CB Charles Woodson had possibly the best season of his 12-year career: 9 INT 4 FF 2 SCK 74 TCK 3 TD. He received NFC Defensive Player of the Month award 3 times and was the AP Defensive Player of the Year. Assisting him in the secondary were Pro Bowl S Nick Collins(6 INT) and veteran CB Al Harris. The Packers sat heavily in a base 3-4 and leaned heavily on their linebackers to perform. Luckily, they hit a homerun in the '09 Draft with LB Clay Matthews. The USC rookie posted 10 sacks in route to a Pro Bowl season.
Key Additions: OT Bryan Bulaga (23rd Overall), DE Mike Neal (56th Overall), P Chris Bryan (Undrafted)
Key Subtractions: DE Aaron Kampman (Jaguars), DE Mike Montgomery (Vikings)
Injuries: DE Johnny Jolly (Suspended)
Predicted Finish: 12-4The entire season rests on the stability of the offensive line. I think they'll be better. Of the 51 sacks they gave up, 41 of them came in the first 9 games. In their remaining 7 games, they went 6-1. First round draft pick, tackle Bryan "Baby Beluga" Bulaga is saying and doing all of the right things so far. He might have earned himself a spot on the line by the time the real games begin. Another fact to consider... Rodgers was sacked 14 times in his two losses against Minnesota. His QB Ratings in those games: 110.6 and 108.5. It's scary to think what he would be capable of with better protection in front of him.
The defense still has a ton of playmakers on it. The losses of Jolly and Kampman will hurt, but the Packers will continue to rely on their athleticism at linebacker. Clay Matthews will benefit from an off-season of NFL conditioning and veterans A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett will continue their solid play. Green Bay's secondary remains one of the best in the league. I expect them to be near the top of the league in turnovers and turnover differential again. The Packers tend to give up a lot of points, but they will make enough plays to keep themselves in games. Fortunately, the offense has enough firepower to win those high scoring games.
The Packers will win the division and compete for a Super Bowl this year. Playing at Lambeau in December should give them a decisive advantage.
Offensive MVP: Aaron Rodgers
Defensive MVP: Clay Matthews
Fantasy Boom: Aaron Rodgers - Like I haven't heaped enough praise on him yet. Rodgers will dominate fantasy this year.
Projected Stats: 4700 yds 38 TD 8 INT
Fantasy Bust: Packers D - not in the sense that they won't create a lot of turnovers, just not as much as last year and with fewer touchdowns. Their schedule is not very forgiving. They will face teams that can put up points.
Fantasy Sleeper: Ryan Grant - as teams gameplan for Rodgers, space will open up for Grant. Couple that with another year of experience for an upgraded offensive line and you have a formula for overachievement.
Projected Stats: 260 car 1400 yds 10 TD, 30 rec 160 yds 2 TD
I think the detail in this blog post goes directly against the blog post about productivity preceding it.
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