Last Year's Record: 3-13 (4th in Division)Last Year's Story: A year removed from a 9-7 record and a near-playoff berth that they squandered in the last week of the season, the Buccaneers looked to build on their chances with new TE acquisition Kellen Winslow and a slew of talented rookies including eventual QB-of-the-future Josh Freeman. The offseason was a transitional mess otherwise. Long-time defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin left for greener pastures to join his son in Tennessee and Raheem Morris, then defensive backs coach, was promoted to replace him. Inexplicably, Jon Gruden was fired in January, paving the way for Morris to become the NFL's youngest head coach (33). What a way to get thrown into the fire.
With the departure of aging veteran QB Jeff Garcia, training camp became a QB battle between Byron Leftwich and Luke McCown, taking precious snaps away from Josh Johnson and Freeman. Leftwich won and McCown was shipped off to Jacksonville. After starting 0-2 he was benched during week 3 and replaced with Johnson. Johnson proceeded to go winless up until their bye week when he was replaced by Freeman. To make matters worse, Tampa lost their starting C Jeff Faine in the first game of the season.
When Freeman took over after the bye week, he led the Buccs to a 38-28 upset at home against Green Bay. Down 28-17 with about 12 minutes remaining in the game, Freeman drove down the field twice, throwing for touchdowns both times. In his first NFL start, his final stat line was 14/31 with 205 yds 3 TD 1 INT good for a QB rating of 86.1. Not too shabby, especially when you consider the talent around him. WR Antonio Bryant and Winslow were nice targets, but neither force a team to gameplan around them. RB Derrick Ward was acquired in the offseason from the Giants, but was an extreme disappointment as a sidekick to Cadillac Williams. Ward played in 14 games but only amassed 400 yards and 1 TD. Williams, meanwhile, played in all 16 games putting up a slightly more respectable yet unspectacular stat line of 800 yards and 4 TD.
The other side of the ball had a very respectable pass defense. Led by CB Aqib Talib (5 INT) and FS Tanard Jackson (5 INT) they ranked 10th in pass yards allowed per game. This was the sole area in which the defense excelled. The line was unable to generate much pressure, sacking the QB only 28 times (good for 26th in the league) and giving up an astounding 158.2 yards/game and 4.8 yards/carry (both good for last in the league).
Key Additions: DT Gerald McCoy (3rd Overall), DT Brian Price (35th Overall), WR Arrelious Benn (39th Overall), SS Sean Jones (Eagles), WR Reggie Brown (Eagles), P Brent Bowden (172nd Overall)
Key Subtractions: WR Antonio Bryant (Bengals), QB Byron Leftwich (Steelers), DL Jimmy Wilkerson (Saints)
Injuries: WR Maurice Stovall (ankle), TE Kellen Winslow (knee) - both are probable for the start of the regular season.
Predicted Finish: 3-13The Buccs are young, inexperienced and lacking talent at the skill positions, but have a relatively easy schedule to navigate this year. Unfortunately I think they'll still be the stomping ground of the NFC South.
Let's get the positive out of the way first. Josh Freeman can play in this league. The question is whether he can play with Reggie Brown and rookies Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams (101st Overall) as his top 3 receivers. Brown couldn't even hold down a roster spot in Philadelphia and relying on green wide receivers with a QB that still needs to mature could be a recipe for disaster. Without strengthening the offensive line or RB positions in the offseason, the Buccs are expecting a bounce back from Cadillac and Ward. I don't see it happening. Defenses can simply stack the box and play the pass coverage man-to-man. Neither RB is talented enough to overcome this.
The defense is young, but could see significant improvement this year. McCoy and Price are very talented and will anchor the line for the foreseeable future. The secondary is still strong and was able to improve their depth with the addition of Jones. The linebackers need to improve, but have a very solid middleman in Barrett Ruud. They should be just as effective against the pass with the ability to generate more pressure up front, but only slightly better against the run. I don't expect them to finish last this year, but I do expect them to give up a ton of points. Unless the offense is consistently firing on all cylinders, the Buccaneers won't win many games.
Offensive MVP: Josh Freeman
Defensive MVP: Gerald McCoy
Fantasy Boom: Kellen Winslow - Young QBs are notorious for targeting the biggest guys on the field. This will be no exception. Winslow is the most talented athlete on the field for them. He must remain healthy.
Projected Stats: 85 rec 850 yds 6 TD
Fantasy Bust: Derrick Ward - Cadillac Williams is still the feature back, so Ward will have to make the most of his carries. Ward stands at only 5'11" 228 lbs and will probably not see time in goal line situations.
Projected Stats: 120 car 500 yds 3 TD
Fantasy Sleeper: Josh Freeman - Although he threw for more interceptions than TDs last year, his talent is obvious. The Buccs have found their franchise QB and he should benefit from another year under the center, but consider him a deep, deep sleeper without much talent surrounding him.
Projected Stats: 3000 yds 15 TD 24 INT
Last Year's Record: 8-8 (3rd in Division)Last Year's Story: The Panthers were coming off a successful '08 campaign, riding the coattails of stud RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to a first seed bye before being upset at home against the Cardinals in a complete meltdown by Jake Delhomme (6 turnovers).
Delhomme, in a bid for consistency, proceeded to open the '09 season in the same way with 4 INT in a week 1 home loss against Philly. He was erratic the rest of the season, leading the team to a 4-7 record and throwing for 8 TD and 18 INT, until he was benched in week 13 for Oregon State product Matt Moore. The Panthers had weapons-o'-plenty with their running back tandem (combined 2250 yards 17 TD) as well as superstar WR Steve Smith (982 yards 7 TD), leading some to believe that the poor record should be attributed mostly to Delhomme. Moore set out to prove those pundits right as he led the Panthers to a 4-1 record while throwing for over 1000 yards 8 TD 2 INT at 61.6% (a QB Rating of 98.5). Moore did this against decent opponents as well, beating a Minnesota team that was still trying to clinch a first round bye in week 15, blowing out the Giants at the Meadowlands in week 16 (and effectively ending their playoff hopes) and beating the Saints during the last week of the season (albeit without their starters).
Overall, the defense could be deemed a success last year. They crushed opponents' passing attacks, limiting them to 191 yds/game (4th Overall) and were able to prevent the opposition from scoring over 20 points/game (9th Overall), but failed miserably against the run (22nd Overall). Hellacious DE Julius Peppers led the team with 10.5 sacks, but no one else was able to get much pressure. MLB Jon Beason continued to be an absolute beast (142 tackles, 1 FF 3 INT) earning his second Pro Bowl trip and CBs Richard Marshall and Chris Gamble were solid as well. Despite Delhomme's 18 interceptions, the Panthers actually posted a positive turnover differential (+6).
Key Additions: QB Jimmy Clausen (48th Overall), DT Ed Johnson (Colts), WR Brandon LaFell (78th Overall), WR Armanti Edwards (89th Overall)
Key Subtractions: DE Julius Peppers (Bears), WR Muhsin Muhammad (retired), QB Jake Delhomme (Browns), LB Na'il Diggs (Rams), DT Damione Lewis (Patriots), DT Ma’ake Kemoeatu (Redskins)
Injuries: WR Steve Smith (arm) and RB Jonathan Stewart (heel) were both banged up in training camp, but should be fine by the regular season.
Predicted Finish: 9-7It's difficult to predict how well the Panthers will do this season. I think they can be anywhere from mediocre to a legitimate playoff team. The offense improved greatly at QB, but it remains to be seen whether Matt Moore can find consistency as a starter across a full season. Fortunately, in his limited appearances, he has few turnovers and seems to let his weapons work for him. Moore could have a very good season and fly under the radar. The lack of a #2 receiving option with the retirement of Muhsin Muhammad will definitely hurt, but the superior ground attack will force opponents to stack the box. Moore should have enough time behind a solid offensive line to produce.
The one glaring issue is the defense. The Panthers lost 4 starters from their front 7. Julius Peppers will be the most impactful loss. He led the team with 10.5 sacks last year. DEs Tyler Brayton and Everette Brown (combined 7.5 sacks last year) look to fill his shoes. Ed Johnson should help with the run defense, but he was injured too often in Indianapolis and has only played in 5 games the past two years. The secondary remains largely the same and there is no reason to suspect a drop-off in production.
It will be interesting to see what they do with Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen. Moore will be on a short leash if he fails to live up to expectations and Clausen would be expected to take over the reins. If Moore is good, the Panthers will have an interesting dilemma on their hands. Clausen was the most NFL-ready QB coming out of this draft and could be used as trade bait.
Offensive MVP: Steve Smith
Defensive MVP: Jon Beason
Fantasy Boom: Steve Smith - I think it's about time Steve Smith started being the best Steve Smith in the league again. His stats in 4 games with Moore: 19 rec 378 yards 3 TD
Projected Stats: 80 rec 1200 yds 10 TD
Fantasy Bust: Dante Rosario - the Panthers are weak at TE. Rosario will be the main option, but with Jeff King and Gary Barnidge in the equation, they figure to spread the ball around. Rosario will suffer.
Projected Stats: 30 rec 280 yds 1 TD
Fantasy Sleeper: Jonathan Stewart - Entering his 3rd season, he has scored 10 TDs in each of the past two years while boasting a YPC of 4.9. If he can stay healthy, he should see his touches increase.
Projected Stats: 240 car 1300 yds 10 TD
Last Year's Record: 9-7 (2nd in Division) Last Year's Story: Matt Ryan improved in his 2nd full year as a starter and went 9-5, throwing for close to 3000 yards 22 TD 14 INT and a QB rating of 80.9. He was resilient for most of the season, but sat out two key games in the thick of the playoff race due to turf toe. This ended up being the Falcons undoing as they lost both games and failed to make the playoffs. RB Michael Turner experienced a breakthrough season in '08 and led the NFL with 376 carries, but was hampered by an ankle injury and missed most of 6 games in '09. RBs Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling carried the load in his absence, the latter being the better of the two. TE Tony Gonzalez continued to give linebackers nightmares at 34 years old, boosting his already stellar Hall of Fame resume. The one major concern on offense, besides injuries was a lack of a 2nd receiving option behind dynamic Pro Bowler Roddy White. Combined, Gonzalez and White caught 17 TD passes. The rest of the team? 9.
The defense was inconsistent, ranking 28th against the pass. Part of this was due to a terrible pass rush which finished 26th in the league in total sacks. DT Jonathan Babineaux (6 sacks), DE John Abraham (5.5 sacks) and DE Kroy Biermann (5 sacks) supplied the majority of the pressure, but after them the depth falls out. The team was not able to replace DT Peria Jerry, who succumbed to a season ending ACL tear in September. The front 7 were decent against the rush, finishing 10th in the league. They were led by LBs Mike Peterson and Curtis Lofton. FS Thomas DeCoud (3 INT 2 FF) and CB Brent Grimes (6 INT) were the lone bright spots on a pass defense that was otherwise torched by the opposing QBs, giving up 300 yards by an individual passer 6 times. Despite the lack of consistency in the secondary, the Falcons posted a turnover differential of +3.
Key Additions: CB Dunta Robinson (Texans), LB Sean Weatherspoon (19th Overall), DT Corey Peters (83rd Overall)
Key Subtractions: CB Chris Houston (Lions), CB Tye Hill (Rams)
Injuries: WR Mike Jenkins (shoulder) - out 3-5 weeks. A team already depleted at WR cannot afford to have Jenkins miss a lot of time. Worth keeping an eye on.
Predicted Finish: 10-6They say you hit your stride during the 3rd year of your NFL career. If this is true, it's great news for Matty Ice and the Atlanta Falcons. With a feast of weapons at the skill positions, the only thing that should hold the Falcons back from a spot in the playoffs this year is the injury bug. I expect the Falcons to contend for a wild-card spot, but they aren't good enough to challenge the Saints for the division yet.
Turner should have a bounce-back year and will get over 300 carries if he can remain healthy. Coach Mike Smith loves running the ball. The team ranked 11th in attempts last year and 2nd in '08. Tony Gonzalez is on the decline, but until he has an unproductive season, I won't write him off. Gonzalez has only missed two games in his 13 year career. Astounding. The injury to Mike Jenkins could be decisive if Turner is unable to get back to '08 form. Roddy White is a top 5 receiver in this league, but Ryan will have little else to throw to. The offensive line remains intact from last year returning all five members. They should benefit from this consistency.
The defense improved in an immediate area of concern: cornerback. 6-year veteran Dunta Robinson was brought in to play opposite Grimes. The Falcons also strengthened their front 7 with the drafting of Weatherspoon and Peters. Both are expected to receive significant playing time this year. The defense will improve their pass coverage without dropping off the production in their run defense.
Offensive MVP: Matt Ryan
Defensive MVP: John Abraham
Fantasy Boom: Roddy White - the only thing holding him back from upper-elite WR fantasy status is the lack of a #2 option across from him. Teams will try to shut down White -- but they won't be very successful.
Projected Stats: 100 rec 1400 yds 8 TD
Fantasy Bust: Jason Snelling - the "bust" aspect of this will depend largely on the health of Turner. If Turner is back, he will get the lion's share of the load, rendering Snelling useless.
Projected Stats: 80 car 300 yds 2 TD
Fantasy Sleeper: Matt Ryan - he sports a positive TD/INT ratio with only 2 seasons under his belt. Ryan has a strong arm and many weapons around him. I wouldn't be surprised to see him finish in the top 10 for fantasy QBs.
Projected Stats: 3800 yds 24 TD 14 INT
Last Year's Record: 13-3 (1st in Division), 3-0 Playoffs, Super Bowl Champions Last Year's Story: This is the one story where I have nothing negative to say. The Saints annihilated their competition to start the season 13-0. Annihilated may even be taking it easy. The Saints somehow managed to outscore their opponents 466 to 274 during this run. The offense claimed the 4th best passing attack and 6th best rushing attack in the league, notching over 30 points 12 different times (including the playoffs).
Drew Brees did not have his best statistic year, but he did have his best all around year, flinging for 4388 yds 34 TD 11 INT at a RIDICULOUS 70.6 % (QB Rating 109.6). The ball was spread around with no receiver scoring over 9 TDs, but 8 different guys were able to contribute 2 or more. WRs Marques Colston and Devery Henderson combined for 1900 yards and 11 TDs. TE Jeremy Shockey contributed significantly as well. The three-headed ground attack consisted of RBs Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush and Mike Bell. Bell had the most carries, but Thomas contributed the most yards. Bush was a threat on the screen as well. All-Pro Jahri Evans flanked a fantastic offensive line which only allowed 20 sacks on Brees all year, ranking 4th in the league.
The offense needed to be this good, because the defense was porous. It ranked 26th against the pass and 21st against the run. The defense also gave up 20 or more points 13 times (including the playoffs) and ranked 20th in the league in points allowed/game. All-Pro Darren Sharper had a career year, picking off 9 passes and returning 3 of them for TDs. DE Will Smith (13 sacks) leads a line of savvy veterans, none of whom stand out as superstars. The line as a whole was mediocre at bringing pressure, tallying 35 sacks (good for 13th in the league). CBs Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer form one of the best tandems in the league and accumulated 6 interceptions between themselves. MLB Jonathan Vilma is a stud, but the rest of the linebacking corps is sub-par. The Saints ranked 3rd in the NFC with a +11 turnover differential. Even though the defense had what could be considered a down year, does it really matter? The team won the Super Bowl. Enough said.
Key Additions: DE Alex Brown (Bears), LB Clint Ingram (Jaguars), DE Jimmy Wilkerson (Buccaneers) CB Patrick Robinson (32nd Overall), OT Charles Brown (64th Overall)
Key Subtractions: RB Mike Bell (Eagles), OT Jammal Brown (Redskins), LB Scott Fujita (Browns), DE Charles Grant (Dolphins)
Injuries: WR Robert Meachem (toe) has missed some training camp, but is expected to be fine.
Predicted Finish: 13-3I don't see any reason why the defending Super Bowl Champs couldn't repeat this year. Their super-powered offense is wholly intact and the defense improved through offseason acquisitions.
I don't think the offense will be as great as they were last year when they averaged 31.9 points/game, but then again I don't think they have to be. Sean Payton is an offensive mastermind and will still have this team firing on all cylinders. Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas will be enough to carry the load. The Saints' WR corps is one of the best in the league and TE Jeremy Shockeyy has a knack for making the big catch. The offensive line is one of the best in the league and should remain that way. Last year's absurd 70% completion rate by Brees is what happens when an elite QB gets time to let the play develop (See: Tom Brady, 2007).
The defense has improved in all areas and the additions of Brown and Ingram will provide some much needed depth. Sharper is a ball-hawk and should have another stellar season. The addition of Robinson will strengthen the secondary as well. The defense is still not one of the league's elite units, but they have enough veterans and playmakers to get by from week to week.
Offensive MVP: Drew Brees
Defensive MVP: Will Smith
Fantasy Boom: Drew Brees - do you really need a reason?
Projected Stats: 4400 yds 30 TD 10 INT
Fantasy Bust: Jeremy Shockey - with too many options on offense, Shockey's looks have suffered. Since 2006, he has seen a decline in receptions every year.
Projected Stats: 45 rec 500 yds 2 TD
Fantasy Sleeper: Pierre Thomas - with Mike Bell gone, Thomas will get more touches. It's a good thing too since he racked up an impressive 5.4 YPC last season.
Projected Stats: 200 car 750 yds 8 TD, 20 rec 160 yds 2 TD
Gopal just told me that people at the barbershop were talking about Drew Beets.
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